Written end of April 2026 for Business Monthly - May 2026 Issue

MARKET WATCH

Broad-based gains on a war-off mode

The period from March 15 to April 15, 2026 saw the EGX regain upward momentum, with both the EGX30 (up 10.5%) and EGX70 (up 6.3%) posting solid gains as investor sentiment improved following the prior month’s consolidation. Geopolitical risks were reduced with the 2-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Market breadth turned positive, with advances outpacing declines by a ratio of 3 to 1. This was supported by renewed interest in the financial and real estate sectors, with continued rotation into small- and mid-cap names.

Healthcare and tourism names led the rally. October Pharma (OCPH, up 59%) surged amid renewed interest in defensive healthcare plays, while Egyptian Resorts Co. (EGTS, up 44%) rallied ahead of its appeal hearing session on May 5. Also, real estate stocks posted broad-based gains. Arab Real Estate Investment (RREI, up 36%), Arab Developers Holding (ARAB, up 21%), and Mena Touristic & Real Estate Investment (MENA, up 23%) benefited from a stronger US dollar. Meanwhile, dual-listed Orascom Construction (ORAS, up 25%) extended its rally on the back of strong 2025 results, reflecting higher backlog visibility and continued project awards.

Banks, meanwhile, continued to attract flows. Suez Canal Bank (CANA, up 44%) and Housing & Development Bank (HDBK, up 40%) advanced on improved earnings visibility in a high interest rate environment. Also, CIB (COMI, up 21%) rebounded following the prior month’s correction, supported by renewed foreign interest given its heavy weight in the EGX30. Similarly, Credit Agricole Egypt (CIEB, up 21%) and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank - Egypt (ADIB, up 21%) posted solid gains, reflecting improving sentiment toward the sector.

The period also saw the strong participation of smaller financial and investment companies, including Alexandria National Co. for Financial Investment (ANFI, up 35%) and Arab Moltaqa Investments (AMIA, up 35%). This coincided with increased retail activity and a pickup in trading volumes as the market shifts towards more opportunistic strategies. On the downside, losses were relatively contained. Alexandria Mineral Oils (AMOC, down 11%) corrected following its recent rally, while Macro Group (MCRO, down 15%) fell amid continued selling pressure. Elsewhere, Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (SKPC, down 5%) and Misr Beni Suef Cement (MBSC, down 6%) also saw mild pullbacks.

From a macro perspective, at its 2 April meeting, the Central Bank of Egypt left policy rates unchanged at 19% for deposits and 20% for lending. The CBE cited elevated global uncertainty, commodity price shocks, and upside inflation risks—a move broadly anticipated by the market. Reflecting the impact of ongoing regional tensions, the CBE also trimmed its FY2025/26 real GDP growth forecast from 5.1% to 4.9%. Still, persistent inflationary pressures and FX volatility remain the key risks, suggesting a more selective market environment going forward.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

Suez Canal Co. for Technology Settling (SCTS)

Suez Canal Co. for Technology Settling (SCTS), owner of 6 October University, saw its market cap multiply on high trading volumes. The stock rose 43% during the period, jumping from EGP264 to EGP376.66. However, the company’s management denied the existence of any material event that would have driven the stock higher. Later on after the end of this period, the company’s management revealed a proposed cash dividend distribution based on its 6-month financials, amounting to EGP1.2 billion or EGP13 a share and implying a 2% yield at the time of the announcement. The stock continued to rally later on to an intraday high of EGP829.02 on Apr. 23, valuing the company at an astronomical EGP75 billion.

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Written end of March 2026 for Business Monthly - April 2026 Issue

MARKET WATCH

Momentum meets consolidation

The period from February 15 to March 15, 2026 saw the EGX enter a phase of consolidation following two months of strong gains. While some pockets of the market continued to rally, profit-taking activities in large caps weighed on the EGX30, whereas the EGX70 showed relative resilience, supported by sharp moves in select small- and mid-cap names. While declines led advances by a ratio of 3 to 1 during the period, positive performance was increasingly driven by stock-specific catalysts rather than broad-based momentum.

Small caps once again dominated the gainers’ list. Tawasoa Factoring (TWSA, up 114%) extended its post-IPO rally as the company was planning an EGP40-million capital increase. This will eventually allow the company to migrate from the small- and medium-sized enterprises exchange to the main board. Fertilizer producers remained in focus against the backdrop of the ongoing US/Israel-Iran war, with Misr Fertilizers Production (MFPC, up 33%) and Abu Qir Fertilizers (ABUK, up 20%) benefiting from continued strength in global urea prices that are driven by limited global supply.

Energy and industrial names were also among the top performers. Alexandria Mineral Oils (AMOC, up 32%) and Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (SKPC, up 13%) gained on improving refining margins and petrochemical spreads. Egypt Aluminum (EGAL, up 27%) extended its rally, supported by firm global aluminum prices and a weaker EGP.

Real estate and asset-backed plays saw renewed interest. Heliopolis Housing & Development (HELI, up 28%) advanced further. The company has been in the spotlight as an acquisition target as part of the Egyptian government’s public offerings program. Meanwhile, Alexandria Containers Handling (ALCN, up 23%) rebounded as the stock moved beyond its mandatory tender offer (MTO) price of EGP22.99 a share, attracting renewed positioning on speculation that the MTO price might be raised. The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) approved the extension of the MTO presented by Black Caspian Logistics Holding Ltd., a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi-based AD Ports, for another 60 working days towards the end of May.

On the downside, large caps bore the brunt of profit-taking. Telecom Egypt (ETEL, down 27%) corrected sharply following its rally the month before and after news of spectrum payments weighed on sentiment. Financials also pulled back, with CIB (COMI, down 17%) and EFG Holding (HRHO, down 17%) declining as foreign investors trimmed their positions in the EGX. Similarly, fintech names led by E-Finance (EFIH, down 19%) and Fawry (FWRY, down 16%) also came under pressure, alongside GB Corp (AUTO, down 20%), paring their earlier gains in the prior period.

As for the macro picture, the recent rate cut by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) continued to support valuations, but foreign outflows and global risk-off sentiment led to short-term volatility. In view of the recent fuel price hikes and a 12% weaker EGP, inflation is likely to increase, casting doubts over the CBE’s easing cycle.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

Egypt Aluminum (EGAL)

Egypt Aluminum (EGAL) was among the notable gainers during the period, rising 27% amid continued strength in global aluminum prices which rose by 10% to around USD3,400 per ton over the same period. The stock also benefited from its export-oriented business model, with a weaker EGP (down 12% in March alone) supporting revenue growth in local currency terms. The stock traded firmly throughout the period, hitting an all-time high of EGP321 a share, first hit intraday on Mar. 8. With 11.6 million shares worth some EGP3 billion changing hands during the period, the stock is now up 29% year-to-date.

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Robo-advisory in Egypt is on the cusp of significant growth. While currently in the early stages, the convergence of technology, evolving consumer behavior, and supportive regulatory environments presents a unique opportunity.

For Egypt to fully harness the potential of robo-advisory services, concerted efforts in regulatory frameworks, consumer education, and technological development will be crucial. As the landscape evolves, Egypt could emerge as a hub for innovative fintech solutions in the MENA region.

Robo-advisory pertains to automated financial advisory services that leverage technology to provide tailored investment management with minimal human intervention. The increased digitization of financial services and rising retail participation in capital markets globally signify a crucial moment for robo-advisory services.

In Egypt, the sector stands at an early yet meaningful inflection point. The country’s market exhibits a high rate of savings misallocation, with capital predominantly funneled into real estate, cash, and gold, coupled with low penetration of discretionary portfolio management. Furthermore, a strong regulatory push is underway towards financial digitization.

Key conclusions emphasize that there exists a significant opportunity for robo-advisory in Egypt; however, its scalability will hinge on factors such as regulatory frameworks, building trust within the market, the depth of financial products available, and effective product design. Aligning these elements will be vital for the evolution of robo-advisory services in the region.

By analyzing the infrastructure, legal landscape, and the status quo of robo-advisors, this report offers a comprehensive overview of their potential to shape the future of financial services in Egypt.

For the full report in both English and Arabic, please click here.

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Written end of February 2026 for Business Monthly - March 2026 Issue

MARKET WATCH

Gaining momentum

The period from Jan. 15 to Feb. 15, 2026 saw both the EGX30 (up 20.7%) and EGX70 (up 7.1%) post strong gains as investor appetite continued to be positive for the second month in a row. Large caps outperformed small caps again as foreign investors turned positive on the market. The rally was driven by a combination of earnings momentum, sector-specific catalysts, and continued positioning amid the current easing cycle.

Telecom Egypt (ETEL, up 66%) was among the top performers during the period. Recently, ETEL and the three other mobile operators were allocated new spectrum for a total of USD3.5 billion, doubling mobile spectrum capacity. Elsewhere, Egypt Poultry (EPCO, up 60%) surged as a high-net-worth investor increased his stake in the company from 7.85% to 12.6% before cutting it in half to 6% a few days later for a handsome profit. Also, nitrogen fertilizer producer Abu Qir Fertilizers (ABUK, up 44%) rallied on firmer global urea prices.

Consumer finance and fintech names were also in focus. Valu (VALU, up 33%) extended gains on expectations of stronger loan growth in a lower-rate environment, while Fawry (FWRY, up 31%) advanced after the Egyptian American Enterprise Fund reduced its stake in the company from 6.1% to 4.4% through an accelerated book building mechanism. Meanwhile, EFG Holding (HRHO, up 27%) benefited from stronger capital markets activity and renewed trading volumes, helped in part by VALU’s stock advance. HRHO was the lead manager for Gourmet Egypt’s (GOUR) IPO, the first to hit the market in 2026. Also, Raya Holding (RAYA, up 31%) continued its recent bull run, supported by improving sentiment toward diversified investment platforms.

Real estate stocks staged a strong comeback, led by TMG Holding (TMGH, up 20%) which recently attracted attention with its promotion from the small cap to the mid cap segment within the FTSE Russell Global Equity Index Series (GEIS). This helped the Egyptian Exchange meet the required number of companies that maintain its classification as an emerging market, in addition to CIB (COMI, up 18%). Also, Madinet Masr (MASR, up 31%) and Heliopolis Housing & Development (HELI, up 31%) rallied, catching up to the rest of the sector as investors positioned for easing financing conditions.

Among industrials, Orascom Construction (ORAS, up 25%) gained on strong 2025 results that came ahead of market expectations. Rameda (RMDA, up 24%) advanced after LVP Pharma appeared for the first time on the company’s shareholder register with a 5.5% stake. Later, the new shareholder upped its stake to 11.8%.

From a macro perspective, improving inflation dynamics gave room for the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to cut interest rates by 100 basis points in its first meeting this year. This low-interest rate environment continued to support equity valuations, particularly growth-oriented and rate-sensitive sectors.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

Gourmet Egypt (GOUR)

Gourmet Egypt (GOUR) became the first initial public offering (IPO) to hit the Egyptian Exchange in 2026. The specialty food retailer floated a minority stake (47.6%) through a private placement and public offering, attracting solid institutional demand. The offer was priced at EGP6.9 a share, the upper limit of the IPO price range, reflecting strong demand for the IPO. The stock rose the maximum allowed limit on its first trading day (Feb. 10), up 40%, then hitting an all-time intraday high of EGP11 the next day, 59% above the IPO price.

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Written end of January 2026 for Business Monthly - February 2026 Issue

MARKET WATCH

A strong finish to the year, a diverging start to the new one

The year 2025 saw EGX30 deliver a 5-year winning streak (up 41%) and EGX70 a 6-year winning streak (up 61%). Egyptian stocks extended their rally into year-end before entering the new year on a firmer footing. The EGX30 posted solid gains during the period from Dec. 15, 2025 to Jan. 15, 2026, while EGX70 pared some of its earlier gains, underperforming EGX30 so far into the new year. The rally was skewed toward select stocks where company-specific news and positioning drove outsized moves.

Another notable feature of the period was the continued divergence in investor preferences, with flows favoring fundamentally-driven names over momentum trades. Year-to-date through mid-January, market performance appears increasingly selective, suggesting investors are becoming more discerning after several years of broad-based gains.

Certain small- and mid-cap stocks led performance during the period. Arab Co. for Asset Management & Development (ACAMD, up 32%) was amongst the gainers amid improving sentiment toward real assets. Cement stocks also staged a notable comeback after a weak prior month, with Misr Cement Qena (MCQE, up 30%) and Suez Cement (SUCE, up 29%) recovering sharply as investors repositioned into the sector on expectations of rising sales volume in view of reconstruction efforts around the region.

Financials were another key contributor to market strength. Prime Holdings(PRMH, up 28%). Meanwhile, banks posted healthy gains, led by Egyptian Gulf Bank (EGBE, up 19%), CIB (COMI, up 13%), Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Egypt (ADIB, up 13%), and Suez Canal Bank (CANA, up 9%). The moves reflected improved sentiment toward the banking sector, supported by expectations of declining interest rates and resilient balance sheets.

Among large caps, Egypt Aluminum (EGAL, up 16%) benefited from firmer global aluminum prices and continued optimism around export-linked earnings. Raya Holding (RAYA, up 13%) extended its gradual recovery as investors reassessed valuations of diversified investment platforms.

On the downside, profit-taking was evident in several names that had previously outperformed. Alexandria Containers Handling (down 15%) fell as the stock consolidated after trading above its mandatory tender offer price (EGP22.99 a share) in prior weeks. Similarly, Canal Shipping Agencies (CSAG, down 17%) corrected lower. Elsewhere, Eastern Company (EAST, down 14%) pulled back amid weaker sentiment toward defensive consumer names. Beltone Holding (BTFH, down 14%) and Raya Customer Experience (RACC, down 14%) also saw notable pullbacks during the period.

From a macro perspective, market sentiment remained supported by expectations of an easing monetary cycle in Egypt in 2026, following signs of disinflation and relative FX stability. This backdrop continued to underpin risk appetite for Egyptian stocks, particularly financials and asset-backed stocks, as investors positioned for lower rates and improving liquidity conditions.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

CIB (COMI)

Commercial International Bank (COMI) came back in vogue, rising 13% during the period from Dec. 15, 2025 to Jan. 15, 2026 and extending its year-to-date gains to 18% through Jan. 15, 2026. The stock’s performance reflects renewed foreign investor interest, supported by resilient and all-time high earnings, strong capital adequacy, and attractive relative valuation within the banking sector. The stock continued to register all-time highs throughout the new year. As the largest constituent of the EGX30, COMI continues to play a pivotal role in shaping index performance, with incremental flows into the stock which translated into broader market upside.

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Written end of December 2025 for Business Monthly - January 2026 Issue

MARKET WATCH

The strong momentum continues

Both EGX30 and EGX70 continued to hit new all-time highs. The former rose 5.3% to 42,305, while the latter rose 7.1% to 13,007, thus extending their year-to-date gains to 42% and 60%, respectively. For the EGX30, the year 2025 could be the second largest performance in the last 8 years, but the EGX70, it’s in 4 years.

As expected, the top gainers during this period were led by small caps. However, one name stood out: El-Obour Real Estate Investment (OBRI), which skyrocketed by 131%, valuing the company at close to EGP1.5 billion before extending its bull run even further. The company had just reported its 9-month results where net earnings jumped more than 200% year-on-year due to booking 3.4 times higher revenues, mostly coming from its contracting business in Saudi Arabia. Also, the stock saw some movement in its shareholder register, which may explain the steep rise in the stock price.

Elsewhere, corporate actions seem to have been driving the performance of several stocks. For instance, Macro Group (MCRO) which just finalized its EGP570-million capital increase saw its stock jump 60%. Similarly, Atlas Investment & Food Industries (AIFI) saw its stock rise 44% before the company revealed its plans to undertake a 77% capital increase to raise EGP50 million in equity capital.

Also, the latest company to go public saw its stock advance further. Tawasoa Factoring (TWSA), listed on the small and medium enterprises exchange, rose 35% during the period. Not only that, but even some USD-denominated stocks rose by a good margin. Indeed, Maridive & Oil Services (MOIL), jumped 28% during the period. The company has written off its investment in Valentine Maritime, setting the scene for earnings to recover over the coming quarters as seen in its third-quarter results, turning to a net profit from a net loss in the prior quarter.

Meanwhile, mergers and acquisitions deals continue to hit the headlines every now and then. The latest came from a company controlled by Abu Dhabi Ports which is interested in upping its stake to 90% but ideally to a minimum of 51% in Alexandria Container & Cargo Handling (ALCN). The mandatory tender offer was priced at EGP22.9 a share, but the stock traded above that level ever since, suggesting the acquirer may raise the deal price.

On the negative side, cement stocks pulled back, erasing some of their earlier gains. For instance, Misr Beni Suef Cement (MBSC, -14%), Sinai Cement (SCEM, -10%), Suez Cement (SUCE, -10%). The only exception was South Valley Cement (SVCE, +14%).

As for the macro picture, the EGP continued to strengthen against the USD as the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, while the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) maintained rates. Expectation is for the CBE to make one final rate cut in 2025 before year-end.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

Qalaa Holdings (CCAP)

Qalaa Holdings (CCAP) came back in vogue, having staged a strong comeback. The stock jumped 45% during the period to EGP3.92. However, the ride was more exciting than it seems; the stock traded between a low of EGP2.20 and a high of EGP4.27—a 94% range in just seven trading sessions. The company just executed its long-awaited capital increase as part of its recapitalization. Certain shareholders had opted to buy the company’s debt at an implied steep discount to the share’s par value with the goal to convert it back into shares at a premium. Hence, a total of 1.8 billion shares were issued, raising the company’s market cap to more than EGP14 billion.

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Written end of November 2025 for Business Monthly - December 2025 Issue

MARKET WATCH

The period from Oct. 15 to Nov. 15 was momentous for the Egyptian stock market. Not only did the market hit new all-time highs, but most indices managed to sustain these levels in the following days.

Let’s take them one by one. EGX30 hit an all-time high of 40,950 on Nov. 10 before pushing higher to 41,443 on Nov. 17, ending November less than 2% off that high. Similarly, EGX70 hit an all-time high of 12,338 on Oct. 27 before pushing higher to 12,468 on Nov. 24, ending November less than 1.5% off that high.

During the period, EGX30 rose 6.7%, while EGX70 rose 5.0%, extending their year-to-date gains to 35.1% and 49.2%, respectively. TMG Holding (TMGH, up 24%) was behind the EGX30 performance during the period, while Amer Group (AMER, up 48%) was behind the EGX70 performance.

Meanwhile, six of the EGX-listed bank stocks saw double-digit returns during the period, led by Suez Canal Bank (CANA, up 37.5%) and followed by QNB Egypt (QNBE, up 32.5%) and Albaraka Bank Egypt (SAUD, up 22%). Sentiment turned positive on the banking sector after CIB (COMI) posted strong third-quarter results that beat expectations due to the release of provisions. Similarly, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Egypt (ADIB, up 20%) was still undergoing an EGP3-billion capital increase at a par value, where its capital increase right was trading at a discount to its underlying stock.

Also, Macro Group (MCRO, down 2% during the period) was also going through with another capital increase 6 times its existing capital at a par value. Following the end of the period, the stock skyrocketed, doubling to EGP1.42 a share.

Elsewhere, cement stocks continued to deliver unprecedented returns, led by Misr Beni Suef Cement (MBSC, up 64%) and Misr Cement Qena (MCQE, up 58%), further extending their year-to-date gain to 403% and 497%, respectively—the best performing cement stocks on record so far in 2025.

As for the macro picture, headline inflation rose for the first time in four months, registering 12.5% in October, which was expected by some economists in the market. But with one more monetary policy meeting left in its coffers, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to take it slow and pushed the pause button on its easing monetary policy for the time being. It held policy rates steady in its November meeting, with market participants expecting it to resume its rate cuts in its December meeting.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

Tawasoa Factoring (TWSA)

Tawasoa Factoring (TWSA) became the latest initial public offering (IPO) to hit the market on the Small & Medium Enterprises Market (previously known as Nilex). This factoring company, licensed in 2020, floated a 25% stake worth only EGP32.4 million at EGP1.73 a share, valuing it at EGP121 million. It was split 80%-20% between a private placement and a public offering. Still, it saw high demand with both the private placement and public offering oversubscribed by 14.8 times and 13.96 times, respectively. The stock hit the 20% maximum price limit on its first day of trading (Nov. 13), hitting EGP2.07. Later on, the stock more than doubled off its IPO price, hitting an intraday high of EGP3.63 on Nov. 23.

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Written end of October 2025 for Business Monthly - November 2025 Issue

MARKET WATCH

The period from Sep. 15 to Oct. 15 was another home run for the market’s two main indices. The EGX30 rose 7.1% (up 26.6% year-to-date), while the EGX70 rose 6.4% (up 42% year-to-date). Advances (around 60% of the stocks) outnumbered declines (around 34% of the stocks). Such performance was supported by the Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) decision to cut interest rates further on Oct. 2 by yet another 100 basis points. This brought the total rate cuts so far into 2025 to 625 basis points.

Both market indices continued to hit all-time highs during the period, reflecting a strong momentum that is picking steam as we approach the finish line within a few weeks. Generally speaking, the top performers during the period were driven in part by some mergers and acquisitions chatter.

For instance, the top gainers were led by Mansoura Poultry (MPCO, up 62.5%), which has seen interest from a sovereign entity. Also, Cairo for Educational Services (CAED, up 58.5%) rose despite CIRA Education (CIRA, up 25%), its major shareholder, launching a mandatory tender offer (MTO) for a fraction of its stock market price. Similarly, Raya Customer Experience (RACC, up 45%) jumped to EGP10.47, surpassing the MTO price of EGP7.5 a share offered by Raya Holding (RAYA, down 4%), its major shareholder. RAYA later upped its MTO price to EGP9 a share after the independent financial advisor set the fair value of RACC at a range between EGP8-9.6 a share.

Elsewhere, Edita Food Industries (EFID, up 35%) continued on its uptrend, especially following the execution of a block trade in the market and the company delivering on its strategy to buy back shares. Meanwhile, the cement sector was buoyed in view of the peace agreement concerning Gaza in the hopes of benefiting from reconstruction projects. Unsurprisingly, Sinai Cement (SCEM, up 32%) rose given its proximity to Gaza and despite the existence of an MTO by Vicat Egypt, its major shareholder, at EGP41 a share, a 40% discount to the market price. Also, Arabian Cement (ARCC, up 20%) rose, driven by the same theme.

Also, the pharmaceuticals sector attracted attention, especially in the government-owned names, like Nile Pharma (NIPH, up 32%) and Memphis Pharma (MPCI, up 32%). But on the other end of the spectrum, Premium Healthcare Group (PHGC, down 42%) plunged after shares of its capital increase began trading in the market and ahead of news that the Attorney General froze the assets of one of the company’s major shareholders along with 46 others. The stock was moved to Schedule D with a daily price limit of +/-5%, thus putting a lid on speculation in the stock.

As for the macro picture, headline inflation came down for the fourth month in a row, registering 11.7% in September, which leaves further room for the CBE to continue its easing monetary policy. The CBE has two meetings left for this year to be held at the end of November and December to decide on the level of interest rates.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

Mansoura Poultry (MPCO)

Established in 1983, Mansoura Poultry (MPCO) is today 42 years old, having become one of the leading and most well-known companies in the Egyptian poultry industry. However, its stock has been trading sideways for at least a decade before it began to show some signs of liveliness after COIVD-19. More recently, the stock was the center of attention after Future of Egypt Authority for Sustainable Development, a sovereign entity, acquired a 22.5% stake in the company. Average traded value rose by more than 16x during the period versus the prior period, with the stock rising 62.5% to EGP2.73 and doubling year-to-date to value the company at around EGP1.8 billion. Later on, the stock continued its uptrend beyond the EGP3 mark.

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Written end of September 2025 for Business Monthly - October 2025 Issue

MARKET WATCH

The period from Aug. 15 to Sep. 15 saw the performance divergence between the market’s two main indices come back again. The EGX30 fell 1.2%, while the EGX70 rose 2.5%. Hence so far into the year, the latter (up 33.5% year-to-date) extended its outperformance over the former (up 18.2% year-to-date) to 15.2 percentage points. In other words, it was another small-cap story taking hold in the market.

Such performance was led in part by an improved economic picture, supported by reform momentum, gradual stabilization of inflation, and favorable interest rate expectations. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) resumed its easing monetary cycle by cutting rates by 2 percentage points, extending its year-to-date cuts to 5.25 percentage points, down to overnight deposit and lending rates of 22% and 23%, respectively.

However, certain stocks all within the same sector made it to the limelight during the period. Indeed, stocks within the land reclamation industry delivered some gigantic performance, led by El Arabia for Land Reclamation (EALR, up 212%) and General Company for Land Reclamation (AALR, up 125%). Also, Arab Development & Real Estate Investment (ADRI, up 56%) rose in tandem. Such euphoria was triggered by news of Egypt’s Future for Sustainable Development Agency acquiring the whole 89.66% stake owned by the Holding Company for Land Reclamation in EALR. Other than that, the company did not share any material development to justify such performance. Such a change in ownership was said to be part of a restructuring process.

Elsewhere, Nile Pharmaceuticals (NIPH, up 70.5%), which was going through an EGP200-million capital increase, saw its stock rise quickly as the company’s 2024/25 earnings rose 39% year-on-year. The first round of the capital increase was almost fully covered (98.7%), with the second round set to take place afterwards. Also within the same health care sector, the performance of Macro Group (MCRO, up 52%) was driven in part by the company’s strong recovery, turning a net loss into a net profit in the first half of the year with earnings more than doubling quarter-on-quarter. Also, the company is going through with its proposed EGP570-million capital increase, which is earmarked to improve efficiency of its factory and repay some shareholder loans, among other purposes.

Even stocks that seldom trade saw their stocks rise on recent news. For instance, Golden Pyramids Plaza (GPPL, up 51%) rose following news of a partnership between its majority-owned subsidiary Golden Coast for Hotels & Touristic Villages and Sky Tower for Real Estate Development, a subsidiary of Emaar Misr for Development (EMFD, down 4%), to develop an EGP900-billion integrated touristic project on the Red Sea.

At the end of the day, what matters the most is the continuation of reform momentum with inflation kept under control.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

National Printing (NAPR)

With an IPO price of EGP21.25 a share, National Printing (NAPR) began trading on Aug. 5 and hit an intraday high of EGP23.69 before ending its first trading day up 9.4%. The public offering was covered 23.6 times, while the private placement was fully covered by one cornerstone investor. Since then, the stock trended lower to end the period at EGP21.99, up only 3.5% off its IPO price. The stock traded during the period between a high of EGP25.75 on Aug. 27 and a low of EGP21.51 recorded on Sep. 14, with 3.4 million shares changing hands worth some EGP77 million.

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Egypt’s financial sector is entering a new phase, where nontraditional investment vehicles, such as hedge funds, are gaining strategic interest. While the market infrastructure is still maturing, Egypt’s economic ambitions, regulatory developments, and investor appetite are aligning to support the future entry of hedge funds.

If adopted strategically, hedge funds can help deepen liquidity, diversify investment strategies, and enhance Egypt’s position as a regional capital markets hub.

However, several headwinds remain. More than a year has passed since hedge fund regulations were introduced, yet leading asset managers have not moved to establish such vehicles. Market participants argue that further developments—particularly the creation of an active derivatives market—are needed before hedge funds can take root.

Hence, a productive dialogue between the regulator and the market participants is key to successfully launch hedge funds in Egypt.

For the full report in both English and Arabic, please click here.

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Written end of August 2025 for Business Monthly - September 2025 Issue

MARKET WATCH

The period from Jul. 15 to Aug. 15 saw the market indices extend their gains for the second month in a row. The EGX 30 (up 4.8%) outperformed the EGX 70 (up 4.3%) by a small margin. The EGX 30 is still trying to catch up with the EGX 70 in terms of year-to-date performance, up 19.6% versus 30.3%, respectively. In terms of sector performance, most of them ended the period higher, led by building materials which in turn was driven by cement stocks. On the other end of the spectrum, shipping tailed the performance list.

The period marked the debut of Bonyan for Development & Trade (BONY) as the first initial public offering (IPO) on the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) in 2025. BONY is a real estate operating company that invests in prime real estate properties to generate rental income. BONY’s EGP1.8-billion IPO valued the company at EGP8.5 billion at its IPO price. However, at the end of its one-month stabilization fund, the stock was trading below its IPO price.

The period was also a mix bag of top performers in both the large cap and small cap camps. For instance, CIB (COMI, up 10%) started to move higher after 10 months of sideway trading. This helped drive the EGX 30 higher. On the other hand, companies like Arab Development & Real Estate Investment (ADRI, up 173%), Misr Oils & Soap (MOSC, up 140%), and Alexandria National Co. for Financial Investment (ANFI, up 105%) more than doubled during the period. The stocks rose despite their management denying any material event behind such a strong performance.

Meanwhile, cement stocks came under the limelight with merger and acquisition talks surfacing. For instance, Misr Cement - Qena (MCQE, up 49%) led the pack with its interest in acquiring a stake in yet another EGX-listed cement manufacturer, Misr Beni Suef Cement (MBSC, up 30%). Also, South Valley Cement (SVCE, up 24%) was considering acquisition offers for its 48%-owned Building Materials Industry Co. (BMIC). Elsewhere, Sinai Cement (SCEM, up 21%) which earlier this year sold its stake in Sinai White Cement is now a target for Vicat Egypt for Cement Industry, its major shareholder with a 77.6% stake, to acquire the remaining stake it does not own with the goal to delist the company. Last but not least, Arabian Cement Co. (ARCC, up 18%) continued to rise after the company said it will buy back up to 4% of its issued shares from the market.

As for the macro picture, the Egyptian pound has been gaining ground as the US dollar fell globally. The Egyptian pound rose more than 2% during the period and up almost 5% year-to-date, while the US dollar index fell almost 10%. With Egypt’s urban inflation falling to 13.9% in July, investors are now leaning more towards a speedier monetary easing by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) in the remaining Monetary Policy Committee meetings it has through the end of this year.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

Bonyan for Development & Trade (BONY)

With an IPO price of EGP4.96 a share, BONY began trading on Jul. 22 and hit an intraday high of EGP5.15, then it was downhill from there. Although the public offering was covered 33.7x, BONY fell the following days to hit an intraday low of EGP4.25. The stock later pared some of its losses to end the period down 13%. It later rose to EGP4.50 by Aug. 21, but it was still down 9% off the IPO price. That was the last day for the public offering investors to sell back to the stock price stabilization fund at the IPO price.

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Written end of July 2025 for Business Monthly - August 2025 Issue

MARKET WATCH

The period from Jun. 15. to Jul. 15 was as good as it gets, thanks to more subdued geopolitical tensions that marred the market performance in the prior period. Following a negative performance in the prior month, all main market indices ended this period higher. The EGX 30 added 9.4% to 33,934.6, and the EGX 70 jumped 11.6% to 10,166.1. As such, both indices extended their year-to-date gains to 14.1% and 24.8%, respectively. In terms of sector performance, it was led by consulting & engineering, while travel led the underperformers.

The period marked the trading debut of U for Consumer Finance, otherwise well known for its brand name Valu (VALU), one of EFG Holding’s (HRHO) subsidiaries. The stock started its trading with a strong euphoria, having jumped to its maximum allowed levels on two consecutive days. Later on, investors traded the stock lower as they took some of their gains off the table.

Also, this period marked the start of the subscription process of Bonyan for Development & Trade’s (BONY) EGP1.8-billion initial public offering (IPO), Egypt’s first in 2025. BONY, tapping a new real estate investment segment, was marketed as one of the ways to gain exposure to the real estate sector but from a long-term investor’s view. This is because BONY’s value is derived from its recurring rents.

Another company-specific performance was related to Orascom Construction (ORAS, up 40% to EGP378). It reacted positively to the news that a rather limited settlement amounting to USD28.7 million was charged against one of ORAS’s subsidiaries’ joint ventures. The market seems to have been discounting this potential outlay, which is why the stock reacted positively to the news.

Elsewhere, the other Orascom stocks posted some stellar performance with no news justifying their performance. Orascom Investment Holding (OIH, up 25% to EGP1.09) and Orascom Financial Holding (OFH, up 24% to EGP0.639) both rose in double digits this period. Meanwhile, Contact Financial Holding (CNFN, up 25% to EGP5.60), around 30% owned by OFH, also rose.

On the other end of the spectrum, Premium Healthcare Group (PHGC, down 34.5% to EGP0.175) began to give in some of its earlier gains. It started falling in a downtrend before even its new shares from its latest capital increase were made available.

As for the macro picture, in its meeting on Jul. 10, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to keep rates unchanged, in line with the market’s forecast. This, along with other internal and external factors, may have helped the Egyptian pound gain some ground against the U.S. dollar. It rose more than 2% during the period.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

U for Consumer Finance “Valu” (VALU)

Marking the first of its kind in the Egyptian stock market, EFG Holding (HRHO) decided to directly list Valu (VALU), one of its subsidiaries, on the Egyptian Exchange. To do so, HRHO distributed around 431.5 million shares (a 20.488% stake) to its shareholders as of Jun. 12 at a ratio of 0.3005 VALU share for each HRHO share. The reference price was VALU’s book value as of Dec. 31, 2024 of EGP0.777/share. This explains why VALU appeared to have jumped more than 850% on Jun. 23, its first trading day. VALU hit a high of EGP9.50 intraday on Jun. 29 (a market cap of some EGP20 billion) before falling 24% to settle at EGP7.22.

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Written end of June 2025 for Business Monthly - July 2025 Issue

MARKET WATCH

The period from May 15. to Jun. 15 was very volatile with the local stock market taking a hit, along with other Arab stock markets. This was a direct result of the Israel-Iran conflict. EGX 30 (down 2.9%) and EGX 70 EWI (down 3.3%) both fell, but they were nonetheless up 4.3% and 11.8%, respectively, for the year. Still, volatility unnerved many investors who ran for the exits. We now know in hindsight that overall global and local markets recovered, but at the time of the crisis, uncertainty overtook some investors’ rationale. Overall, declines outnumbered advances by a ratio of 3 to 1 during the period.

Building materials, specifically cement, stocks rose as a sector, led by Misr Beni Suef Cement (MBSC, up 47%), Misr Cement (MCQE, up 34%), South Valley Cement (SVCE, up 23.5%), and Arabian Cement (ARCC, up 19%). Similarly, milling stocks came back under the limelight, possibly as we approach its annual dividend season. They were led by Upper Egypt Flour Mills (UEFM, up 42%) and North Cairo Flour Mills (MILS, up 21%).

The last day of the period marked the ex-dividend date of EFG Holding (HRHO, down 6%) with regards to the in-kind distribution of 20.5% of Valu, its majority-owned consumer finance arm. HRHO fell more than 12% on that day. That day also marked the first trading day for the Egyptian stock market following the Israeli attack on Iran, which resulted in a heightened level of uncertainty around the world, including neighboring Arab markets. EGX 30 and EGX 70 EWI fell 4.6% and 5.2% after paring their losses for the day.

Similarly, Beltone Holding (BTFH, up 30%) extended its year-to-date positive performance to 42.5%. It appears that the non-banking financial services (NBFS) stocks were buoyed by the Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) decision on May 22 to cut benchmark EGP interest rates by 100 basis, the second in a row, bringing total rate cuts since the start of the year to 325 basis points. Investors are hoping that this would help reduce NBFS’s cost of funding down the road. However, the May inflation reading came in slightly higher than expected, making investors question the pace at which the CBE will continue to cut rates, especially amid more uncertainties around the Middle East.

In this context, global and regional markets appear to have absorbed the recent U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear sites, effectively curtailing Iran's ambitions to develop nuclear weapons—at least for the time being. However, the extent to which Iran's nuclear capabilities have been "obliterated" remains uncertain, leaving the situation not totally resolved.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

Misr Beni Suef Cement (MBSC)

Misr Beni Suef Cement (MBSC) was another hot cement stock that more than doubled (up 122%) since the start of the year. The company increased its stake in Misr Cement Qena (MCQE), another local cement manufacturer, from 0.65% to 11.03%, yet another merger and acquisition activity within the cement sector. That stake came mostly from Al-Ahly Capital Holding which sold off its entire 10% stake in MCQE. MBSC acquired the additional stake in MCQE at around EGP30 a share, after which the stock rose to as high as EGP46 early June. Later, MCQE fell in view of the Israel-Iran conflict before recovering all of its losses as MBSC fell on profit-taking activity. Still, MBSC was up 47% during the period.

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Written end of May 2025 for Business Monthly - June 2025 Issue

MARKET WATCH

The period from Apr. 15. to May 15 saw EGX 70 EWI further outperform EGX 30, widening their gap to more than 8 percentage points on a year-to-date basis. Rising 4.9% for the period, EGX 70 EWI (well above the 9,000 level) is now up 15.7% since the start of the year compared to only 7.4% for EGX 30 which rose only 2.4% for the period. EGX 30 is said to be trying to set the 32,000 level as a floor to move higher, but it has so far been lagging EGX 70 EWI.

Overall, advances outnumbered declines by a ratio of 5 to 2 during the period. However, it was a story of opposites. On the one hand, top gainers included many small-cap names, the likes of Golden Coast (GOCO), Unipack (UNIP), Creast Mark for Contracting & Real Estate Development (CRST), and Copper for Commercial Investment & Real Estate Development (COPR) – all above more than 45% for the period. On the other hand of the spectrum, top losers included some small-cap names like El Obour Real Estate Investment (OBRI, down 19%) and Gulf Canadian Real Estate Investment (CCRS, down 16%) but also included large-cap names like Juhayna Food Industries (JUFO, down 12%) and Sinai Cement (SCEM, down 11%). However, many of the underperformers during the period are still up on a year-to-date basis.

Meanwhile, companies continued to report their first-quarter results which for the most part showed strong year-on-year performance in terms of recurring earnings, excluding gains from foreign currency movement. This is notwithstanding some of the windfalls that companies reported in the year-ago quarter following the Egyptian pound devaluation of Mar. 6.

Still, some companies like CIB (COMI, up 5.7%) reported 39% year-on-year higher earnings, reaching EGP 16.6 billion, its highest ever quarterly earnings on record and the highest among all EGX-listed companies. This helped the stock move up beyond the EGP 80-a-share level, allowing its market capitalization to flirt with the EGP 250-billion mark.

Elsewhere, some companies have benefited from its sector dynamics as well as macroeconomic drivers. For instance, Ibnsina Pharma (ISPH, up 1.1% for the period, up 35.7% year-to-date) reported first-quarter earnings growth of 85%. The drug distributor continues to benefit from higher drug prices and very soon will benefit from lower interest rates which started to come down in late April.

Furthermore, after the end of the period, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) cut interest rates for the second time in 2025 in its third meeting of the year. Having cut rates by 100 basis points on May 22, the CBE has so far cut rates by a cumulative 325 basis points in 2025. This leaves five more meetings all of which will be held in the second half of the year. With two consecutive rate cuts, the CBE looks determined to push ahead with its easing cycle. The only question that remains is how low would it go?

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STOCK ANALYSIS

Arabian Cement Co. (ARCC)

Arabian Cement Co. (ARCC), the most valuable cement company trading on the EGX, rose 14.4% during the period, raising its year-to-date performance to 67.5% since the start of the year. Since the third quarter of last year, cement prices in Egypt have been on the rise. This goes back to July 2021 when a quota system was introduced in the Egyptian cement market with the blessing of the Egyptian Competition Authority (ECA) as cement producers were suffering from low cement prices and rising costs. In an effort to contain the rise in cement prices, ECA suspended the quota system for May and June, the first time since its introduction.

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Written end of April 2025 for Business Monthly - May 2025 Issue

MARKET WATCH

Both main market indices diverged during the period from Mar. 15 to Apr. 15., with EGX 70 EWI adding another 2.2% and EGX 30 pulling back 0.3%. Year-to-date, EGX 70 EWI is still ahead with a positive 10.2% return versus only 4.9% for EGX 30. Still, the former is flirting with the 9,000 level, while the latter is holding on to its 30,000 psychological level.

Similar to the previous month, small caps continued to lead the top performers’ list for the period. For instance, Obour Real Estate Investment (OBRI, up 84%) and Premium Healthcare Group (PHCG, up 78%), featured as the top gainers with 75%-plus performance.

OBRI only announced in late April that its Dubai branch obtained an official license from the relevant authorities to undertake contracting activities in the UAE, which represents a regional expansion potentially adding value in the future. PHGC, on the other hand, pressed ahead with its capital increase with its shareholders paving the way to finalize several acquisitions through cash and debt-equity swaps. PHGC's issued and paid-in capital will rise from EGP81.5 million to EGP2.4 billion at a 28-for-1 ratio.

Elsewhere, large caps made it to the gainers’ list, albeit lagging a bit. For instance, GB Corp (GBCO, up 24%) despite Saudi Olayan Group reducing its stake in the company from 5.1% to 4.96%. Egypt’s leading local car manufacturer recently said it was selected by Hyundai Motor as its official distributor of the commercial brand of Genesis. Other gainers included stocks like Orascom Investment Holding (OIH, up 23%) and Egytrans (ETRS, up 23%). Meanwhile, Ibnsina Pharma (ISPH, up 17.5%) has been benefiting from higher drug prices and more recently from declining interest rates, which would eventually reduce its borrowing costs, further driving earnings growth.

On the other side of the fence, the losers’ list for the period included household and defensive names that have just begun to cool down somewhat. The list includes Domty (DOMT, down 16%), Juhayna Food Industries (JUFO, down 9%), and Cleopatra Hospitals Group (CLHO, down 10%). Interestingly, DOMT approved an EGP0.85-a-share cash dividend before it was revealed that Danish Arla Foods will put off investing in DOMT following news that DOMT will be split into two different entities.

As for the macro picture, urban inflation rose marginally in March to 13.6%, which was expected by the market. This left the door open for the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to start easing interest rates in its Apr. 17 Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Lower interest rates mean a lower opportunity cost and thus a lower required rate of return which would drive stock valuation higher across the board. Whether or not a company is well positioned for this new direction in interest rates, its stock performance will eventually follow, so investors need to keep a close eye on second-quarter results.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

Al-Tawfeek Leasing Co. (ATLC)

Al-Tawfeek Leasing Co. (ATLC) is one of several companies listed on the EGX going through capital increases. Subscription to ATLC’s EGP441-million capital increase ran until Apr. 30, which will be distributed over 176.53 million shares at a par value of EGP2.5 a share. The increase was paid through Al Baraka Bank Egypt (SAUD), while creditors were permitted to subscribe with their balances. ATLC had reported net profits of EGP216 million in 2024, up 26% year-on-year on 49% higher revenues of EGP1.7 billion. ATLC, well known for its high dividend yield, distributed a cash dividend of EGP0.47 a share (a 10% yield) to shareholders as of Apr. 15.

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The world has been rattled by the recently-announced-then-paused Trump tariffs. No one knows how far this will go, but either way, Egypt stands to benefit.

U.S. vs. the Rest of the World (including China)

I would like to think of it as positioning the U.S. in one camp and the rest of the world in another camp. I actually think it is not a “U.S. vs. the Rest of the World” confrontation, but rather a “U.S. vs. China” feud, and everyone else is caught in between! It is about who’s got the strongest muscles and how much can they flex them?

With the implementation of the Trump tariffs, only prices in the U.S. should go higher, in my opinion, leading to lower U.S. demand for imported goods. This would create somewhat of an oversupply situation in the world (ex-U.S.), thus leading global prices lower. This could be another by-product positive for Egypt: lower prices. But it’s a double-edged sword. More on the other edge of the sword at the end.

On side of the sword: Lower inflation

Trump tariffs, if implemented, are bound to reduce world trade. This would hit Egypt’s Suez Canal revenues that are already down to 40% of their potential. Egypt’s finances would be constrained as a result, which would necessitate a reduction of expenses, the most important of which is interest payments. One way to do that is to try to lower interest rates. While some may argue that higher interest rates are needed to combat inflation, I believe that in Egypt’s case interest rates are not a function of inflation but a function of Egypt’s budget deficit.

The more Egypt has to borrow in the market, the longer interest rates would be sustained at such high levels. We all know the Egyptian society is not interest rate sensitive on the liability side (borrowers), but it is on the asset side (pensioners and depositors). Higher interest rates are relatively inelastic on the liability side, but they have proved to be more elastic on the asset side. We have all seen how individual stock trading has grown in size in the aftermath of the EGP devaluation.

The CBE’s upcoming action

Conversely, Egypt’s high inflation has been driven by not only imported inflation but also by higher interest rates. We have been in this “high inflation-high interest rate” spiral for quite some time, so it needs to be broken by cutting interest rates sooner rather than later. The Central Bank of Egypt meets on Thursday, 17 April, and I do hope it starts easing because Egypt does not have the luxury to consume a good bulk of state revenues in interest payments and debt repayments.

The other side of the sword: Higher imports

Back to Trump tariffs, I believe Egypt has the potential to benefit from all of this by exporting more, turning into the “go to” export hub, and all with a lower imported bill. But this would only be valid if, and only if, our imports do not increase as a result of lower global prices. Otherwise, Egypt’s FX situation would be exacerbated even further.

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Written end of March 2025 for Business Monthly - April 2025 Issue

MARKET WATCH

Last month’s comeback seems to have been a change in direction. Both main market indices rose during the period from Feb. 15 to Mar. 15., further extending their year-to-date (YTD) performance; the EGX 30 added another 4.3% to 5.2% YTD, and the EGX 70 EWI added another 4.6% to 7.9% YTD. The EGX 30 finally managed to penetrate the 30,000 psychological level, suggesting a recovery by large caps which are yet to overtake small caps.

Indeed, small caps are still ahead in terms of performance, led by some names familiar to retail investors. For instance, shares of New Ismailia for Urban Development (IDRE) rose 94% during the period to EGP34.01, yet the company denied any material events or information that led to such an outstanding performance. The company’s earnings rose more than 21 times year-on-year, albeit to around EGP14 million in 2024 on higher revenues driven by rental income.

In contrast, earnings were not the driver behind the strong performance of Misr National Steel - Ataqa (ATQA, up 56% to EGP8.20). The company’s earnings fell 21% year-on-year to around EGP578 million in 2024 despite doubling its revenues to EGP5.43 billion as financing expenses and a drop in the fair value of some financial investments ate into profits. But what drove the stock higher was an EGP1.9-billion deal whereby Organi Group will acquire a 26.25% indirect stake in ATQA. This came after Ezz Steel (ESRS) went through with its delisting off the Egyptian Exchange (EGX), which brought ATQA under the spotlight as the other alternative to having an exposure to the steel industry in Egypt.

Meanwhile, the health care sector in general and the pharmaceutical industry in specific were among the top performers, led by Memphis Pharmaceuticals (MPCI, up 50% to EGP83.96), Rameda (RMDA, up 38% to EGP4.63), Ibnsina Pharma (ISPH, up 30% to EGP8.00), and Cairo Pharmaceuticals (CPCI, up 25% to EGP134.74). While pharmaceutical companies continue to benefit for product repricing, ISPH stands to benefit twice, once from the product repricing and once from an expected decline in interest rates starting this year.

Elsewhere, shares of EFG Holding (HRHO) rose around 20% during the period to EGP27.35 a few days before reporting an all-time high earnings of EGP4.25 billion in 2024, up 71% year-on-year. Concurrent with its earnings release, HRHO revealed its intention to directly list valU, its well-known consumer finance arm, on the EGX by June.

But the latest direct listing on the EGX has not been performing that well. Go Green for Agricultural Investment & Development (GGRN), which started trading on Feb. 9, fell 29% during the period to EGP1.10 a share, which is 38% below its EGP1.77 a share fair value set by an independent financial advisor.

As for the macro picture, Egypt’s real GDP growth rate rose to 4.3% in the quarter ended Dec. 2024, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.4%. Going forward, investors await the Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) decision on Apr. 17 as far as interest rates are concerned.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

Rameda (RMDA)

Since the start of the year, Rameda’s (RMDA) stock rose around 39% through mid-March 2025. However, most of the stock’s positive performance took place during the period, having risen by 38% to EGP4.63. The company recently reported its full-year figures for 2024, hitting all-time high records in terms of revenues and earnings. Indeed, revenues rose 44% to EGP2.77 billion, and earnings rose 58% to EGP387 million. The company’s management even proposed to distribute around 40% of its 2024 earnings, translating into a dividend yield of around 2%. RMDA benefited after the Egyptian Drug Authority began allowing pharmaceutical companies to revise their selling prices higher, mainly during the second half of 2024.

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Written end of February 2025 for Business Monthly - March 2025 Issue

MARKET WATCH

After starting off the year on the wrong foot, both main market indices staged a comeback during the period from Jan. 15 to Feb. 15. EGX 30 rose 2.1% just shy of the 30,000-point psychological level, while EGX 70 EWI rose 3.5%. Such a performance brought the two indices back in the black on a year-to-date basis, up 0.9% and 3.2%, respectively. Still, declines outnumbered advances, albeit by a small margin.

During the period, shares of a company by the name of Go Green for Agricultural Investment & Development (GGRN) began to trade after undertaking a direct listing on the Egyptian Exchange. The stock opened trading on Feb. 9 at EGP1.77 a share which is the fair value set by an independent financial advisor. On its first day of trading, the stock jumped to an intraday high of EGP2.12 before touching a low of EGP1.25, a 41% drop.

Meanwhile, the top performers’ list was led by small caps, like Egyptian for Developing Building Materials (EDBM, up 90%), Cairo Oils & Soap (COSG, up 64%), and Mena Touristic & Real Estate Investment (MENA, up 37%).

EDBM is now leading the 2025 top performers’ so far with a year-to-date return of 168%. The company recently signed an agreement with Remco Touristic Villages Construction (RTVC, down 7%) to buy all units in its Stella Di Mare Sokhna 2 with the remaining transaction value of EGP4.4 billion to be paid off in 3 annual installments totaling EGP1.4 billion and the remaining EGP3 billion to be recorded as due to RTVC to be potentially swapped into EDBM shares through a capital increase.

Meanwhile, COSG continued to bear the fruits of its restructuring after reporting strong results during 2024. Net earnings jumped 300% to EGP134 million on 14.5% higher revenues of EGP1.06 billion. On the other hand, MENA, which reported a wider net loss in 2024, had accepted an offer from Concrete Plus to develop a 10-feddan land in Mena Garden City project against a 36% profit share.

Also, South Valley Cement (SVCE, up 33%) said it was not aware of any offer to acquire a stake in one of its investments in order to settle an outstanding debt due to National Bank of Egypt. Two other cement manufacturers, namely Arabian Cement (ARCC, up 29%) and Misr Beni Suef Cement (MBSC, up 26%) denied the existence of any material events that drove their stock price lately.

Elsewhere, some large caps delivered strong performance, led by Juhayna Food Industries (JUFO, up 20%) and EFG Holding (HRHO, up 16%), ahead of reporting their full-year 2024 results. On the other hand, the underperformers’ list was led by Premium Healthcare Group (PHGC, down 42%), Misr Kuwait Investment (MKIT, down 33.5%), and Rakta Paper Manufacturing (RAKT, down 24%).

As for the macro picture, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) is delaying its easing cycle to the second quarter of 2024, despite falling inflation. This should secure Egyptian banks with high profitability for some time.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

Osool ESB Securities Brokerage Co. (EBSC)

Osool ESB Securities Brokerage Co. (EBSC) used to be one of the leading stock brokerage firms in Egypt with focus on individual investors. Majority owned by Osool Holding for Financial Investments with a 74% stake, the brokerage house ranked 25th in 2024 with a total trading value of EGP17.6 billion capturing a 0.7% market share, more than 70% of which was driven by individual investors. Early February, EBSC received a binding offer from UAE-based Amass Investments to take part in the former’s EGP100-million capital increase to be fully allocated to the latter through a private placement at a price per share to be set at the fair value assigned by an independent financial advisor. During this period, the stock jumped 42% to EGP1.03 after around 133 million shares changed hands worth some EGP140 million. The stock later jumped by as much as 50% to EGP1.54, valuing EBSC at EGP616 million.

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Written end of January 2025 for Business Monthly - February 2025 Issue

MARKET WATCH

The year 2024 marked the fourth year in a row where both main market indices delivered positive rates of return, albeit in Egyptian pound terms. In 2024, the EGX 30 and the EGX 70 EWI rose by 19.5% and 48.8% to end the year at 29,741 and 8,143, respectively. Both indices managed to register double-digit annual returns in the last three years. However, in EGP terms, both indices were down for the year by 27% and 10%, respectively. So far into 2025 through Jan. 15, the EGX 30 fell 1.2%, while EGX 70 EWI fell 0.3%.

The top performers’ list in 2024 was led by somewhat obscure names that are not widely followed by the market, namely Sharkia National Food Co. (SNFC), which we featured in last month’s issue. No wonder then that small caps as measured by EGX 70 EWI outperformed large caps as measured by EGX 30.

Meanwhile, the period from Dec. 15 to Jan. 15 saw both indices pulling back. The EGX 30 fell 4.5%, and the EGX 70 EWI fell 5.7%. In fact, the month of December, which has been mostly a positive month for both indices, was negative in 2024 for the first time since 2020 in the case of EGX 30 and since 2019 in the case of EGX 70 EWI.

Nonetheless, the market did not run out of stock rallies just yet. For instance, South Cairo & Giza Mills (SCFM) more than doubled during the period, jumping 103% to EGP72.44. And as usual, the company denied any material events that may have triggered such a performance which came with an above-average trading volume. One of the few companies that report their earnings on a monthly basis, SCFM continued to report net losses. After reporting a net loss of EGP1.3 million in its first quarter ended 30 Sep. 2024, it reported another monthly loss in its second quarter with a net loss of EGP0.6 million in November 2024 versus a net income of EGP4.3 million a year before without giving a reason for the losses.

On the other hand, Marseilia Egyptian Gulf Real Estate Investment (MAAL) tailed the list, down 24% to EGP3.18. The real estate developer’s board of directors approved to raise its capital by EGP96.2 million through a cash injection and initially approved to participate in a Saudi company as part of its regional expansion plan. The company, which reported a net loss of EGP22 million in its 9-month results, said it managed to reverse it to a net profit of EGP9.1 million as of 23 Dec. 2024.

Meanwhile, the macro picture was more or less unchanged, with the exception of the exchange rate. The Egyptian pound weakened against the U.S. dollar towards the end of 2024, ending the year at around EGP50.9 before recovering marginally to EGP50.5 by the end of the period.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

Ezz Steel (ESRS)

Ezz Steel (ESRS), the region’s largest steel manufacturer, wanted to leave the Egyptian Exchange and the London Stock Exchange and go private. Initially, the company offered its shareholders who were opposed to the delisting of its shares a maximum of EGP120 a share, which represented a premium of 36% to its average price during 2024 which was EGP88.43. However, an independent financial advisor (IFA) later on valued ESRS at EGP138.15 a share. During the period, the stock rose 23% to EGP130 after the company came back on Jan. 14 and decided to up its offer to the IFA’s valuation.

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Written end of December 2024 for Business Monthly - January 2025 Issue

MARKET WATCH

The period from Nov. 15 to Dec. 15 showed mixed performance of both market’s main indices, where EGX 30 fell 2.2% while EGX 70 EWI rose 2.5%. Regardless of the direction during the period, the Egyptian stock market was on its way to deliver yet another year of strong performance across its major indices. By ending the year 2024 in the black, EGX 30, EGX 70 EWI, and EGX 100 EWI would be marking their fourth, fifth, and sixth positive years in a row, respectively.

But there are two versions of the same story when considering that the Egyptian pound has fallen by some 38% since the start of 2024. On the one hand, the market indices have so far reported positive double-digit returns in 2024 but in EGP terms. EGX 30 rose 24%, EGX 70 EWI rose 57%, while EGX 100 EWI rose 49.5%. On the other hand, this performance in USD terms is all in the red to different degrees (-23%, -2%, and -7%, respectively). Over the last 4 years, the cumulative performance of EGX 70 EWI (up 302%) has dwarfed that of EGX 30 (up only 184%). To put the numbers into perspective, this implies a 4-year compound annual rate of return of 42% for EGX 70 EWI versus 30% for EGX 30.

As for stock performance during the period, it was mostly led by small caps, with a focus on certain themes, such as pharma, exporters, and banks. Within pharma, as companies start to benefit from higher medicine prices, stocks such as Arab Drugs (ADCI, up 32%), Minapharm (MIPHm up 21%), and Cairo Pharma (CPCI, up 17%) registered double-digit rates of return. Meanwhile, exporters like KABO (KABO, up 33%), Dice Sport & Casual Wear (DSCW, up 18%), and Arab Dairy Products (ADPC, up 17%) may have been buoyed by a stronger U.S. dollar versus the Egyptian pound, rising 2.5% since the start of December.

Other gainers included banks, such as Suez Canal Bank (CANA, up 19.5%) that may have been brought back into the limelight in view of the latest initial public offering (IPO) of The United Bank (UBEE). Marking the EGX’s second and last major IPO in 2024, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) sold 30% of its stake in UBEE for EGP13.85 a share. By the end of the period the stock was up 3.7% at EGP14.36, having hit an intraday high of EGP15.23 (10% above IPO price) on its first day of trading on Dec. 10.

This leaves investors looking forward to new IPOs coming their way in 2025, especially after the Egyptian government slated at least 10 companies to be floated in the new year. Elsewhere, the CBE continued to stay put and held on to interest rates through the end of 2024, leaving room for a more dovish monetary policy in 2025 as inflation pressures ease.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

Sharkia National Co. for Food Security (SNFC)

Shares of Sharkia National Co. for Food Security (SNFC) delivered a stellar performance during the period (up 64%) and so far, year-to-date (up 705%). SNFC manufactures and sells poultry and animal feed and rents its refrigerators for preservation and cooling and operates a Petromin gas station. More recently, it added several lines of business, namely a center of protein powder production from poultry slaughterhouse waste, a dry port for storing containers, and a frozen fruits and vegetables production line. Nasser Social Bank is still its major shareholder with a combined 10.8% stake, but an individual shareholder has been accumulating in the stock, raising his stake from 7.6% to 9.5% recently. The company reported a 76% lower net loss in its 9-month period of EGP1.5 million. And as usual, when asked by the Egyptian Exchange about the driver behind its stock's strong performance of late, the company denied the existence of any material events.

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