Written end of April 2026 for Business Monthly - May 2026 Issue

MARKET WATCH

Broad-based gains on a war-off mode

The period from March 15 to April 15, 2026 saw the EGX regain upward momentum, with both the EGX30 (up 10.5%) and EGX70 (up 6.3%) posting solid gains as investor sentiment improved following the prior month’s consolidation. Geopolitical risks were reduced with the 2-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Market breadth turned positive, with advances outpacing declines by a ratio of 3 to 1. This was supported by renewed interest in the financial and real estate sectors, with continued rotation into small- and mid-cap names.

Healthcare and tourism names led the rally. October Pharma (OCPH, up 59%) surged amid renewed interest in defensive healthcare plays, while Egyptian Resorts Co. (EGTS, up 44%) rallied ahead of its appeal hearing session on May 5. Also, real estate stocks posted broad-based gains. Arab Real Estate Investment (RREI, up 36%), Arab Developers Holding (ARAB, up 21%), and Mena Touristic & Real Estate Investment (MENA, up 23%) benefited from a stronger US dollar. Meanwhile, dual-listed Orascom Construction (ORAS, up 25%) extended its rally on the back of strong 2025 results, reflecting higher backlog visibility and continued project awards.

Banks, meanwhile, continued to attract flows. Suez Canal Bank (CANA, up 44%) and Housing & Development Bank (HDBK, up 40%) advanced on improved earnings visibility in a high interest rate environment. Also, CIB (COMI, up 21%) rebounded following the prior month’s correction, supported by renewed foreign interest given its heavy weight in the EGX30. Similarly, Credit Agricole Egypt (CIEB, up 21%) and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank - Egypt (ADIB, up 21%) posted solid gains, reflecting improving sentiment toward the sector.

The period also saw the strong participation of smaller financial and investment companies, including Alexandria National Co. for Financial Investment (ANFI, up 35%) and Arab Moltaqa Investments (AMIA, up 35%). This coincided with increased retail activity and a pickup in trading volumes as the market shifts towards more opportunistic strategies. On the downside, losses were relatively contained. Alexandria Mineral Oils (AMOC, down 11%) corrected following its recent rally, while Macro Group (MCRO, down 15%) fell amid continued selling pressure. Elsewhere, Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (SKPC, down 5%) and Misr Beni Suef Cement (MBSC, down 6%) also saw mild pullbacks.

From a macro perspective, at its 2 April meeting, the Central Bank of Egypt left policy rates unchanged at 19% for deposits and 20% for lending. The CBE cited elevated global uncertainty, commodity price shocks, and upside inflation risks—a move broadly anticipated by the market. Reflecting the impact of ongoing regional tensions, the CBE also trimmed its FY2025/26 real GDP growth forecast from 5.1% to 4.9%. Still, persistent inflationary pressures and FX volatility remain the key risks, suggesting a more selective market environment going forward.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

Suez Canal Co. for Technology Settling (SCTS)

Suez Canal Co. for Technology Settling (SCTS), owner of 6 October University, saw its market cap multiply on high trading volumes. The stock rose 43% during the period, jumping from EGP264 to EGP376.66. However, the company’s management denied the existence of any material event that would have driven the stock higher. Later on after the end of this period, the company’s management revealed a proposed cash dividend distribution based on its 6-month financials, amounting to EGP1.2 billion or EGP13 a share and implying a 2% yield at the time of the announcement. The stock continued to rally later on to an intraday high of EGP829.02 on Apr. 23, valuing the company at an astronomical EGP75 billion.

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Written end of March 2026 for Business Monthly - April 2026 Issue

MARKET WATCH

Momentum meets consolidation

The period from February 15 to March 15, 2026 saw the EGX enter a phase of consolidation following two months of strong gains. While some pockets of the market continued to rally, profit-taking activities in large caps weighed on the EGX30, whereas the EGX70 showed relative resilience, supported by sharp moves in select small- and mid-cap names. While declines led advances by a ratio of 3 to 1 during the period, positive performance was increasingly driven by stock-specific catalysts rather than broad-based momentum.

Small caps once again dominated the gainers’ list. Tawasoa Factoring (TWSA, up 114%) extended its post-IPO rally as the company was planning an EGP40-million capital increase. This will eventually allow the company to migrate from the small- and medium-sized enterprises exchange to the main board. Fertilizer producers remained in focus against the backdrop of the ongoing US/Israel-Iran war, with Misr Fertilizers Production (MFPC, up 33%) and Abu Qir Fertilizers (ABUK, up 20%) benefiting from continued strength in global urea prices that are driven by limited global supply.

Energy and industrial names were also among the top performers. Alexandria Mineral Oils (AMOC, up 32%) and Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (SKPC, up 13%) gained on improving refining margins and petrochemical spreads. Egypt Aluminum (EGAL, up 27%) extended its rally, supported by firm global aluminum prices and a weaker EGP.

Real estate and asset-backed plays saw renewed interest. Heliopolis Housing & Development (HELI, up 28%) advanced further. The company has been in the spotlight as an acquisition target as part of the Egyptian government’s public offerings program. Meanwhile, Alexandria Containers Handling (ALCN, up 23%) rebounded as the stock moved beyond its mandatory tender offer (MTO) price of EGP22.99 a share, attracting renewed positioning on speculation that the MTO price might be raised. The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) approved the extension of the MTO presented by Black Caspian Logistics Holding Ltd., a subsidiary of Abu Dhabi-based AD Ports, for another 60 working days towards the end of May.

On the downside, large caps bore the brunt of profit-taking. Telecom Egypt (ETEL, down 27%) corrected sharply following its rally the month before and after news of spectrum payments weighed on sentiment. Financials also pulled back, with CIB (COMI, down 17%) and EFG Holding (HRHO, down 17%) declining as foreign investors trimmed their positions in the EGX. Similarly, fintech names led by E-Finance (EFIH, down 19%) and Fawry (FWRY, down 16%) also came under pressure, alongside GB Corp (AUTO, down 20%), paring their earlier gains in the prior period.

As for the macro picture, the recent rate cut by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) continued to support valuations, but foreign outflows and global risk-off sentiment led to short-term volatility. In view of the recent fuel price hikes and a 12% weaker EGP, inflation is likely to increase, casting doubts over the CBE’s easing cycle.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

Egypt Aluminum (EGAL)

Egypt Aluminum (EGAL) was among the notable gainers during the period, rising 27% amid continued strength in global aluminum prices which rose by 10% to around USD3,400 per ton over the same period. The stock also benefited from its export-oriented business model, with a weaker EGP (down 12% in March alone) supporting revenue growth in local currency terms. The stock traded firmly throughout the period, hitting an all-time high of EGP321 a share, first hit intraday on Mar. 8. With 11.6 million shares worth some EGP3 billion changing hands during the period, the stock is now up 29% year-to-date.

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التسجيل

Robo-advisory in Egypt is on the cusp of significant growth. While currently in the early stages, the convergence of technology, evolving consumer behavior, and supportive regulatory environments presents a unique opportunity.

For Egypt to fully harness the potential of robo-advisory services, concerted efforts in regulatory frameworks, consumer education, and technological development will be crucial. As the landscape evolves, Egypt could emerge as a hub for innovative fintech solutions in the MENA region.

Robo-advisory pertains to automated financial advisory services that leverage technology to provide tailored investment management with minimal human intervention. The increased digitization of financial services and rising retail participation in capital markets globally signify a crucial moment for robo-advisory services.

In Egypt, the sector stands at an early yet meaningful inflection point. The country’s market exhibits a high rate of savings misallocation, with capital predominantly funneled into real estate, cash, and gold, coupled with low penetration of discretionary portfolio management. Furthermore, a strong regulatory push is underway towards financial digitization.

Key conclusions emphasize that there exists a significant opportunity for robo-advisory in Egypt; however, its scalability will hinge on factors such as regulatory frameworks, building trust within the market, the depth of financial products available, and effective product design. Aligning these elements will be vital for the evolution of robo-advisory services in the region.

By analyzing the infrastructure, legal landscape, and the status quo of robo-advisors, this report offers a comprehensive overview of their potential to shape the future of financial services in Egypt.

For the full report in both English and Arabic, please click here.

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Below is my personal forecast for Egypt’s inflation reading for February 2026 and the year 2026.

Definitions

• Headline = Urban inflation headline number.

• Core = Core inflation that excludes volatile items, like fruits and vegetables, and administratively-controlled or regulated items.

• Food = Food inflation.

• Annual = Comparing the CPI reading versus the same month a year before.

• Monthly = Comparing the CPI reading versus the previous month.

Disclaimer

The forecasts provided on this platform are for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial, investment, or professional advice. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information presented, it is inherently uncertain and subject to change.

By using these forecasts, you acknowledge that you do so at your own risk. The author and associated parties shall not be liable for any losses, damages, or expenses arising from the use of, or reliance on, the forecasts provided. It is recommended that you conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any decisions based on this information.

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هذه الحلقة تأتيكم برعاية ثاندر ورامبل

في هذا البث، يناقش خبراء رامبل تداعيات التقلبات الأخيرة في الأسواق من زوايا متعددة: الاقتصاد الكلي، الأسهم، والسلع.

Written end of February 2026 for Business Monthly - March 2026 Issue

MARKET WATCH

Gaining momentum

The period from Jan. 15 to Feb. 15, 2026 saw both the EGX30 (up 20.7%) and EGX70 (up 7.1%) post strong gains as investor appetite continued to be positive for the second month in a row. Large caps outperformed small caps again as foreign investors turned positive on the market. The rally was driven by a combination of earnings momentum, sector-specific catalysts, and continued positioning amid the current easing cycle.

Telecom Egypt (ETEL, up 66%) was among the top performers during the period. Recently, ETEL and the three other mobile operators were allocated new spectrum for a total of USD3.5 billion, doubling mobile spectrum capacity. Elsewhere, Egypt Poultry (EPCO, up 60%) surged as a high-net-worth investor increased his stake in the company from 7.85% to 12.6% before cutting it in half to 6% a few days later for a handsome profit. Also, nitrogen fertilizer producer Abu Qir Fertilizers (ABUK, up 44%) rallied on firmer global urea prices.

Consumer finance and fintech names were also in focus. Valu (VALU, up 33%) extended gains on expectations of stronger loan growth in a lower-rate environment, while Fawry (FWRY, up 31%) advanced after the Egyptian American Enterprise Fund reduced its stake in the company from 6.1% to 4.4% through an accelerated book building mechanism. Meanwhile, EFG Holding (HRHO, up 27%) benefited from stronger capital markets activity and renewed trading volumes, helped in part by VALU’s stock advance. HRHO was the lead manager for Gourmet Egypt’s (GOUR) IPO, the first to hit the market in 2026. Also, Raya Holding (RAYA, up 31%) continued its recent bull run, supported by improving sentiment toward diversified investment platforms.

Real estate stocks staged a strong comeback, led by TMG Holding (TMGH, up 20%) which recently attracted attention with its promotion from the small cap to the mid cap segment within the FTSE Russell Global Equity Index Series (GEIS). This helped the Egyptian Exchange meet the required number of companies that maintain its classification as an emerging market, in addition to CIB (COMI, up 18%). Also, Madinet Masr (MASR, up 31%) and Heliopolis Housing & Development (HELI, up 31%) rallied, catching up to the rest of the sector as investors positioned for easing financing conditions.

Among industrials, Orascom Construction (ORAS, up 25%) gained on strong 2025 results that came ahead of market expectations. Rameda (RMDA, up 24%) advanced after LVP Pharma appeared for the first time on the company’s shareholder register with a 5.5% stake. Later, the new shareholder upped its stake to 11.8%.

From a macro perspective, improving inflation dynamics gave room for the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to cut interest rates by 100 basis points in its first meeting this year. This low-interest rate environment continued to support equity valuations, particularly growth-oriented and rate-sensitive sectors.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

Gourmet Egypt (GOUR)

Gourmet Egypt (GOUR) became the first initial public offering (IPO) to hit the Egyptian Exchange in 2026. The specialty food retailer floated a minority stake (47.6%) through a private placement and public offering, attracting solid institutional demand. The offer was priced at EGP6.9 a share, the upper limit of the IPO price range, reflecting strong demand for the IPO. The stock rose the maximum allowed limit on its first trading day (Feb. 10), up 40%, then hitting an all-time intraday high of EGP11 the next day, 59% above the IPO price.

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Below is my personal forecast for Egypt’s inflation reading for January 2026 and the year 2026.

Definitions

• Headline = Urban inflation headline number.

• Core = Core inflation that excludes volatile items, like fruits and vegetables, and administratively-controlled or regulated items.

• Food = Food inflation.

• Annual = Comparing the CPI reading versus the same month a year before.

• Monthly = Comparing the CPI reading versus the previous month.

Disclaimer

The forecasts provided on this platform are for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial, investment, or professional advice. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information presented, it is inherently uncertain and subject to change.

By using these forecasts, you acknowledge that you do so at your own risk. The author and associated parties shall not be liable for any losses, damages, or expenses arising from the use of, or reliance on, the forecasts provided. It is recommended that you conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any decisions based on this information.

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هذه الحلقة تأتيكم برعاية ثاندر ورامبل

اللي هيشتري سهم جورميه هيكسب؟

ليه التوقيت ده مهم للمستثمرين؟

الحلقة دي بنتكلم عن:

• خطة التوسع بعد الاكتتاب

• النمو من غير ضغط على الميزانية

• فرص التوزيعات النقدية

• وإزاي السهم ممكن يعيد تسعير نفسه بعد الطرح

رؤية كاملة قبل ما تاخد أي خطوة.

الخلاصة في اكتتاب GOUR

في الحلقة دي، بنشرح تفاصيل الاكتتاب وكل اللي محتاج تعرفه قبل ما تاخد قرارك.

وهنتكلم عن القيمة العادلة لسهم جورميه GOUR، نمو الشركة، والأرقام اللي وراها استراتيجية التوسع والتوزيعات النقدية وليه الاكتتاب ده مختلف.

الحلقة دي معمولة لكل مستثمر عايز ياخد قرار مبني على فهم وتحليل حقيقي، مش مجرد إحساس أو تريند.

المحتوى بيقدمه:

• أحمد حمودة - المؤسس المشارك والرئيس التنفيذي لشركة ثاندر ورامبل

• عمرو حسين الألفي - رئيس استراتيجيات الأسهم في رامبل

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Written end of January 2026 for Business Monthly - February 2026 Issue

MARKET WATCH

A strong finish to the year, a diverging start to the new one

The year 2025 saw EGX30 deliver a 5-year winning streak (up 41%) and EGX70 a 6-year winning streak (up 61%). Egyptian stocks extended their rally into year-end before entering the new year on a firmer footing. The EGX30 posted solid gains during the period from Dec. 15, 2025 to Jan. 15, 2026, while EGX70 pared some of its earlier gains, underperforming EGX30 so far into the new year. The rally was skewed toward select stocks where company-specific news and positioning drove outsized moves.

Another notable feature of the period was the continued divergence in investor preferences, with flows favoring fundamentally-driven names over momentum trades. Year-to-date through mid-January, market performance appears increasingly selective, suggesting investors are becoming more discerning after several years of broad-based gains.

Certain small- and mid-cap stocks led performance during the period. Arab Co. for Asset Management & Development (ACAMD, up 32%) was amongst the gainers amid improving sentiment toward real assets. Cement stocks also staged a notable comeback after a weak prior month, with Misr Cement Qena (MCQE, up 30%) and Suez Cement (SUCE, up 29%) recovering sharply as investors repositioned into the sector on expectations of rising sales volume in view of reconstruction efforts around the region.

Financials were another key contributor to market strength. Prime Holdings(PRMH, up 28%). Meanwhile, banks posted healthy gains, led by Egyptian Gulf Bank (EGBE, up 19%), CIB (COMI, up 13%), Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank Egypt (ADIB, up 13%), and Suez Canal Bank (CANA, up 9%). The moves reflected improved sentiment toward the banking sector, supported by expectations of declining interest rates and resilient balance sheets.

Among large caps, Egypt Aluminum (EGAL, up 16%) benefited from firmer global aluminum prices and continued optimism around export-linked earnings. Raya Holding (RAYA, up 13%) extended its gradual recovery as investors reassessed valuations of diversified investment platforms.

On the downside, profit-taking was evident in several names that had previously outperformed. Alexandria Containers Handling (down 15%) fell as the stock consolidated after trading above its mandatory tender offer price (EGP22.99 a share) in prior weeks. Similarly, Canal Shipping Agencies (CSAG, down 17%) corrected lower. Elsewhere, Eastern Company (EAST, down 14%) pulled back amid weaker sentiment toward defensive consumer names. Beltone Holding (BTFH, down 14%) and Raya Customer Experience (RACC, down 14%) also saw notable pullbacks during the period.

From a macro perspective, market sentiment remained supported by expectations of an easing monetary cycle in Egypt in 2026, following signs of disinflation and relative FX stability. This backdrop continued to underpin risk appetite for Egyptian stocks, particularly financials and asset-backed stocks, as investors positioned for lower rates and improving liquidity conditions.

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STOCK ANALYSIS

CIB (COMI)

Commercial International Bank (COMI) came back in vogue, rising 13% during the period from Dec. 15, 2025 to Jan. 15, 2026 and extending its year-to-date gains to 18% through Jan. 15, 2026. The stock’s performance reflects renewed foreign investor interest, supported by resilient and all-time high earnings, strong capital adequacy, and attractive relative valuation within the banking sector. The stock continued to register all-time highs throughout the new year. As the largest constituent of the EGX30, COMI continues to play a pivotal role in shaping index performance, with incremental flows into the stock which translated into broader market upside.

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Thanks for reading BORSAGY x بورصجي! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

This is the monthly update of my personal forecasts for Egypt’s macro forecast through 2032.

The forecasts dated 21 January 2026 cover the following:

• Inflation rate.

• FX rate.

• Interest rate:

  • CBE’s overnight lending rate (quarterly, annual, EOP, and average).

  • CBE’s overnight deposit rate (quarterly, annual, EOP, and average).

• Cost of capital:

  • Egypt’s cost of equity (COE).

  • Egypt’s cost of debt (COD), before and after corporate tax.

All forecasts (old and new) can be downloaded from the below Excel file.

Emf 20260121

376KB ∙ XLSX file

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Disclaimer

The forecasts provided on this platform are for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial, investment, or professional advice. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information presented, it is inherently uncertain and subject to change.

By using these forecasts, you acknowledge that you do so at your own risk. The author and associated parties shall not be liable for any losses, damages, or expenses arising from the use of, or reliance on, the forecasts provided. It is recommended that you conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any decisions based on this information.